Image from NYC Bike Share
In mid-20th century urban America, whites emigrated en masse from racially mixed inner-cities to racially homogenous suburbs. According to Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point, this white flight from cities occurred abruptly once the African American share of the population in each city reached a critical level, perhaps 20%. Very little white emigration took place while African Americans made up less than 20% of a city's population. However, once the percentage of African Americans reached 20%, massive white emigration occurred suddenly. Gladwell calls situations like these -- where significant change occurs precipitously when a particular condition is met -- tipping points.
In New York City, a new tipping point is approaching. The city's bike share program, set to launch in the summer of 2012, will drastically increase the number of people who bicycle in New York. Despite its recent gains in popularity, cycling is not considered a mainstream form of transportation alongside walking, transit, and driving in New York. By providing convenient and inexpensive bike access to millions of residents and visitors who would normally have to overcome significant barriers to entry before becoming a regular cyclist, the bike share program has the potential to bring about a tipping point to launch bicycling into the ranks of other mainstream forms of transportation.
Let's be honest, purchasing and owning a bike can be an expensive hassle, especially for beginners. First, you must find a bike that fits you and purchase it. Then, you need to buy a bike lock and learn to use it properly. Ideally, you would also purchase tail and headlights, a bike bell, and the tools and supplies needed for maintenance.
If you live in New York City (or other urban areas), there are additional challenges you must overcome. Finding room for a bike in New York's notoriously small living spaces is an added inconvenience. Maybe it would be easier to just store the bike outside, locked to a bike rack? Nope. John Pucher, an urban planning professor at Rutgers University, uses 3 words to describe the availability of bike parking in New York: lousy, lousy, and lousy. In addition, New York is always near the top of Kryponite's list of 10 worst cities for bike theft, so your bike probably wouldn't last long even if you could find a bike rack.
Commuters who travel to New York's central business district have their own challenges to overcome if they are interested in cycling in the city. While the New York City subway allows bicycles onboard at all hours, other public transit systems that run lines into and out of the city restrict when bikes can be brought onboard.
Considering these challenges, it's a wonder that anyone ever begins cycling in cities in the first place. The beauty of a bike share system, however, is that someone who isn't yet passionate about cycling can try it without having to overcome these barriers to entry. A quick $5 credit card charge will give a potential lifelong cyclist or novice the opportunity to try biking for an entire day without having to deal with all of the hassles that come with purchasing and owning a bicycle. Bike share bicycles can be adjusted to fit nearly anyone, and they come with the necessary lights and a bell; there is no need to get fitted for the bike or purchase additional accessories. The bike share program's operator handles bike maintenance, so there is no need to learn how to fix bikes or buy maintenance equipment. In addition, the bike share program will solve the storage problem for customers by providing kiosks for the bikes and assuming the risk for stolen bikes. Finally, commuters will have easy access to bikes once they reach the city.
By making it easy to experiment with bicycling, the bike share program will expose cycling to a new market of travelers, many of which may make cycling part of their lives. As a result, New York City residents will become more sympathetic towards cycling which should make it easier to implement pro-cycling policies and build more and better cycling infrastructure in the city. In addition, studies have shown that having more cyclists on the road actually decreases the chances of being injured or killed while cycling. The increase in the number cyclists that will come from the addition of the bike share program will surely make streets safer for cyclists. Together, these pro-biking policies, improved infrastructure, and increased safety will make cycling more appealing to New York City residents and visitors. This may cause a positive feedback loop for cycling, leading to a snowball effect which would ultimately result in a much higher mode share for cycling in the city.
The difficulties inherent to urban cycling prevent many in New York City from experimenting with cycling as a form of transportation. By overcoming these difficulties, New York City's bike share program will significantly and immediately increase the number of cyclists in the City. The knock-on effects of increased bicycle ridership, including more policies that are bike-friendly, better infrastructure, and increased safety, will further increase cycling's popularity. The end result will be a massive and sudden increase in the popularity of cycling in New York, a change which will propel cycling into the ranks of the other mainstream forms of transportation in the city.
